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The euro is trading around 1.1576, below the 21-day SMA and the 200-day EMA, and within an uptrend channel formed since March 13. On the H4 chart, we can see that the euro has encountered strong resistance around 1.1640, where the 200-day EMA is located and is exerting downward pressure.
The euro is expected to fall below the 3/8 Murray level and below the 21 SMA in the coming hours, potentially reaching the support of the uptrend channel around 1.1530 and possibly even the 2/8 Murray level around 1.1475.
If bearish momentum goes ahead, the euro is expected to continue falling and could reach the 1/8 Murray line around 1.1352. As long as the price settles below the 200 EMA, any technical rebound will be viewed as an opportunity to sell in the coming days.
Conversely, a consolidation above 1.1646 could support a recovery in the euro, and EUR/USD is expected to reach the 4/8 Murray level around 1.1718 and could even close the gap left around 1.1820, eventually reaching the 5/8 Murray level around 1.1840.
The Eagle indicator has reached oversold levels, so a strong technical correction in the euro is likely to occur in the coming days. Therefore, we will look for opportunities to sell below 1.1645, with targets at 1.1474 and 1.1352.
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