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On the hourly chart, GBP/USD continued its upward movement on Thursday, but by the end of the day, it failed to close above Wednesday's level. However, no pullback or correction was observed, meaning the uptrend remains intact. On Friday morning, the British pound is rising again, despite the lack of economic reports so far. The uptrend is heading toward the 1.2931 level. If the pair rebounds from this level, it will favor the U.S. dollar, triggering a decline toward the 100.0% retracement level at 1.2810. A breakout above 1.2931 will increase the likelihood of further gains toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3003.
The wave structure is clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, whereas the new upward wave has already broken the last peak. This confirms the continuation of a bullish trend. The pound has shown strong growth, perhaps even too strong, considering that the fundamental backdrop does not fully justify such aggressive buying.
On Thursday, there was little fundamental news. The euro had reasons to decline, but bears are currently absent in the market. Since the euro is not falling, the pound also sees no reason to decline. The British pound continues to mirror the euro's movements—if the euro rises, the pound follows suit. The euro's rally is primarily driven by concerns over Donald Trump's protectionist policies, which the market perceives as harmful. Initially, the market reacted cautiously to tariffs against China, the EU, the UK, Mexico, and Canada, but now there is a clear exodus from the U.S. dollar.
Countries targeted by Trump's tariffs are now retaliating, which Trump may not have anticipated. He seemed to believe that tariffs would force U.S. trade partners into compliance, but instead, they are pushing back, which is creating greater uncertainty in global markets.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD continues its upward movement, breaking above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2861, opening the way toward the 38.2% retracement at 1.2994. A strong decline in the pound is unlikely unless the pair closes below the ascending channel. The CCI indicator is also showing signs of a bearish divergence, indicating a potential pullback.
The Non-commercial trader category has become less bearish in the latest reporting week. The number of long positions increased by 525, while short positions decreased by 4,517. Bulls have lost their advantage, but bears have not yet strengthened significantly. The difference between long and short positions is minimal—74,000 vs. 69,000.
In my view, the pound still has downward potential, and the COT report suggests that bearish sentiment is slowly building. Over the past three months, long positions have declined from 120,000 to 74,000, while shorts dropped from 75,000 to 69,000. I believe that institutional players will continue to reduce long positions or increase shorts over time, as all fundamental factors supporting the pound have already been priced in. The recent positive UK data provided temporary support, but the overall trend still favors weakness in GBP.
Friday's economic calendar features at least three major events. Market sentiment will be strongly influenced by these reports, particularly in the second half of the day. However, a strong U.S. dollar rally remains unlikely given the prevailing risk-off sentiment.
Sell GBP/USD after a rejection from 1.2931 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.2810. Buying GBP/USD was possible above 1.2788–1.2801, targeting 1.2931 (already nearly reached). A breakout above 1.2931 will allow holding long positions toward 1.3003.
Fibonacci retracement levels were built using 1.2809–1.2100 on the hourly chart and 1.2299–1.3432 on the 4-hour chart.
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