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The Australian dollar has moved through the entire consolidation range of 0.6273 to 0.6351. Consolidating below 0.6273 could potentially lead to a target of 0.6196 (the MACD line). However, given the weakening of the U.S. dollar, this scenario seems unlikely. The decline of the Australian dollar is mainly driven by falling commodity prices; however, if the U.S. dollar continues its sharp and prolonged decline, commodity prices alone may not be enough to pull commodity currencies.
The transition of the Marlin oscillator into the bearish zone suggests a range-bound movement centered around the zero line (illustrated by the gray rectangle). Therefore, under the primary scenario, the price is expected to rebound toward 0.6351.
Importantly, on the four-hour chart, the price has not yet consolidated below the lower boundary of the range. In this situation, Marlin's move into negative territory could be a false signal. A breakout above the MACD line at 0.6296 could push the oscillator into growth territory, paving the way toward the upper boundary of the range.
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