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The AUD/JPY pair is under pressure, attracting new selling near the round level of 94.00, which marks the weekly high. This was followed by a steady decline, with spot prices falling below the next round level of 93.00, seemingly halting the two-day recovery from August 2024 levels.
The market situation is largely driven by expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again. This, combined with concerns over the economic consequences of the U.S.'s aggressive tariff policy, is increasing demand for the safe-haven Japanese yen. Additionally, the risk of further escalation in the U.S.-China trade war is also pressuring the Australian dollar, negatively impacting the AUD/JPY pair.
From a technical perspective, two-month lows near the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and oscillators in negative territory indicate that the path of least resistance remains downward. Further weakness will lead to the round level of 92.00 and a multi-month low around 91.80. Expectations of further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) also support this bearish outlook.
On the other hand, any recovery will face resistance around 93.70, followed by the weekly high at the round level of 94.00. A breakout above this level would pave the way for further gains toward the monthly high in the 94.70-94.75 level and a return to the psychological level of 95.00. If the AUD/JPY pair manages to overcome the 50-day SMA, it will be a key moment that shifts the short-term bias in favor of the bulls.
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