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The Federal Reserve has done all it can to calm the markets, but in 2025, the spotlight has shifted away from the central bank.
The S&P 500 has brushed off strong housing data and jobless claims, instead focusing on the brewing constitutional crisis stirred up by Donald Trump's defiance of court rulings, as well as his new tariff threats. Trump has declared April 2nd the "day of America's liberation," clearly hinting at a potential rollout of reciprocal import tariffs.
Trade Policy Uncertainty Index on the Rise
According to Morgan Stanley, the S&P 500 is unlikely to revisit historic highs before the second half of 2025. Any rallies, especially those led by low-quality stocks, will likely be short-lived, as uncertainty clouds the outlook for economic and corporate growth.
In the latter half of the year, anything is possible, as investors shift focus to 2026. Even if markets can't count on Donald Trump, they still have the Federal Reserve. Amid slowing GDP growth, the central bank may eventually throw a lifeline to equities.
Investor Sentiment at Historical Lows
A recent American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey shows that bearish sentiment has outweighed bullish sentiment for four weeks straight, a record in the history of the survey. Investor sentiment reflects deep uncertainty. While there is hope for stabilization, that doesn't mean the S&P 500 will shoot up without efforts. Instead, the market is likely to experience choppy, erratic moves, reflecting the underlying climate of uncertainty.
Markets are now preparing for the zero hour when $4.5 trillion worth of derivatives is set to expire in the third week of March. The rebalancing of positions could bring about heightened volatility.
Last December, the VIX (fear index) surged following hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, which cut its 2025 rate cut projections down to just two. Even though most expiring contracts may not directly affect the S&P 500, volatility spikes—similar to a rollercoaster—remain a real risk.
Fears may intensify as April approaches, with the White House expected to implement reciprocal tariffs. The EU has already backpedaled, pushing back tariffs on US whiskey imports from early spring to mid-spring. Their stated goal is to buy time for talks with Washington and avoid economic pain on both sides. But it's unlikely that Donald Trump will be deterred—and markets agree.
Technical Outlook: S&P 500 at a Key Pivot
On the daily chart, the S&P 500 is currently battling around the critical pivot level of 5,670, forming an inside bar pattern. A breakout above 5,710 could serve as a signal for short-term buying, potentially followed by a reversal. Conversely, a successful break below support at 5,633 may trigger a new wave of selling.
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