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The NZD/USD pair is attempting to regain positive momentum, supported by renewed US dollar selling. However, given the underlying fundamentals, bullish traders are advised to proceed with caution.
Investors appear confident that the US economic slowdown, driven by tariffs, will soon force the Federal Reserve to resume its rate-cutting cycle. Markets are already pricing in at least four rate cuts by the end of the year. This, combined with an improved global risk sentiment, is preventing the safe-haven US dollar from benefiting from its recent recovery, which in turn supports the risk-sensitive New Zealand dollar.
Additionally, reports that China is considering preemptive stimulus measures to soften the impact of tariffs are also helping antipodean currencies, including the kiwi. For now, the NZD/USD pair has ended a two-day losing streak, pausing near the psychological 0.5500 level. However, the pair's upside remains limited amid the escalating US-China trade war.
Trump has imposed reciprocal tariffs of at least 10% on all imported goods, which led to 54% levies from China. He has also threatened additional 50% tariffs if China does not lift its retaliatory duties. This creates an environment where it is prudent to wait for stronger follow-through buying before confirming that the NZD/USD pair has bottomed and is ready for a short-term rally.
From a technical standpoint, the pair has so far failed to overcome the 0.5595 hurdle. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart remain firmly in negative territory, indicating that the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
Traders are also advised to refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes due Wednesday. Furthermore, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI), scheduled for release on Thursday and Friday respectively, will be key indicators for assessing the Fed's next steps and will likely have a significant impact on short-term US dollar price dynamics—and, consequently, on the NZD/USD pair.
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