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Gold is trading around $4,509, above the 21-day SMA, and has staged a strong technical rebound after hitting the 6/8 Murray level around $4,375.
According to the H4 chart, gold is currently within a downtrend channel. From the opening of Monday's session through yesterday, gold fell from its high of $4,585 to a low of $4,362. From this sharp decline, gold rebounded to reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and is now facing strong resistance at the upper band of the downtrend channel.
If, in the coming hours, gold breaks out and consolidates above the downtrend channel and above $4,520, this could be considered a buy signal, with targets at the 200 EMA around $4,630 and potentially even reaching the 7/8 Murray level around $4,687.
If gold continues its rally and consolidates above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, it is likely to reach the 100% level and even the 161% level around $4,725 in the coming days.
Given that gold is within the downtrend channel, if it falls below $4,530 in the coming hours, the outlook could turn negative, and gold could resume its bearish cycle, potentially extending its fall until it reaches $4,375.
Our trading plan for the coming hours is to sell gold below $4,500 with targets at $4,478 around the 21 SMA and at $4,375, or buy above $4,505.
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