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The Euro and the Pound plummeted, along with several other risk-sensitive assets paired with the US dollar—and there were objective reasons for this.
Yesterday, Donald Trump stated he was ready to reduce tariffs on China, which immediately became a strong reason to buy the dollar. He then added that he did not intend to seek the dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which led to a rally in US stock markets and further dollar buying.
Trump's comments on China came amid growing concerns over the slowdown of global economic growth and the potential negative impact of the US-China trade war on the US economy. Even the prospect of lowering tariffs is viewed by markets as a sign of willingness to compromise and de-escalate tensions, which positively affects the outlook for global trade.
Regarding Powell, the decision not to pursue his dismissal is interpreted as a sign of greater predictability and stability in US monetary policy. Uncertainty surrounding the Fed leadership had weighed on the dollar recently, so reaffirming Powell's position helped support the greenback.
As mentioned above, markets reacted immediately. The US dollar surged against most major currencies, and investors shifted their focus from risk assets, such as emerging market stocks, to safer, dollar-denominated instruments.
Today, pressure on the euro may only increase, as weak data is expected on the Eurozone manufacturing PMI and services PMI. Economists forecast a decline in the manufacturing activity index, signaling a slowdown in industrial growth. A similar trend is expected in the services sector, where a deceleration in business activity is also likely. This may indicate broader structural issues within the Eurozone economy.
In addition, the Eurozone's trade balance—which reflects the difference between exports and imports—could also come under pressure due to declining demand for European goods due to tariffs. A negative trade balance could further weigh on the euro.
If the data aligns with economists' expectations, acting based on the Mean Reversion strategy is better. If the data turns out to be significantly stronger or weaker than expected, the Momentum strategy would be most effective.
Buying on a breakout above 1.1412 could lead to a rise in the euro towards 1.1485 and 1.1571.
Selling on a breakout below 1.1341 could lead to a decline in the euro towards 1.1267 and 1.1206.
Buying on a breakout above 1.3320 could lead to a rise in the pound towards 1.3365 and 1.3410.
Selling on a breakout below 1.3280 could lead to a decline in the pound towards 1.3245 and 1.3165.
Buying on a breakout above 142.20 could lead to a rise in the dollar towards 142.85 and 143.30.
Selling on a breakout below 141.70 could lead to a sell-off in the dollar towards 141.30 and 140.80.
I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1421, once the price returns below this level.
I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1361, once the price returns above this level.
I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3332, once the price returns below this level.
I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3277, once the price returns above this level.
I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6427, once the price returns below this level.
I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6380, once the price returns above this level.
I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3851, once the price returns below this level.
I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3815, once the price returns above this level.
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