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The euro and the pound continued declining against the U.S. dollar, under pressure from positive news and fundamental developments.
Strong U.S. PMI data and new home sales figures brought renewed pressure on risk assets in the second half of yesterday's session, sparking demand for the dollar. Encouraged by signs of resilience in the U.S. economy, traders rebalanced their portfolios in favor of dollar-denominated assets, adding extra pressure on the euro, pound, and Japanese yen.
However, fundamental factors driving long-term trends remain the focus of market participants. This, of course, refers to tariffs and the ongoing trade war, which remains unresolved. Inflation in the eurozone, despite some cooling, still exceeds the European Central Bank's target levels. The same is true for the United Kingdom. This creates the preconditions for further cautious monetary easing, which could support the dollar in the medium term.
Today, in the first half of the day, we await data on Germany's IFO Business Climate Index, Current Assessment Index, and Expectations Index. These indicators traditionally significantly impact the euro, as Germany is the largest economy in the eurozone. Improvement in IFO figures may indicate a strengthening in the German economy and thereby support the euro.
Conversely, worsening indicators could pressure the single currency. Traders will be closely watching how actual data compares to forecasts. If the data significantly exceeds expectations, we can expect increased market optimism and a strengthening euro. Otherwise, disappointing data may lead to a wave of selling and a weakening of the euro.
If the data matches economists' expectations, the Mean Reversion strategy is best. The Momentum strategy is more appropriate if the data is significantly above or below expectations.
Buying on a breakout of 1.1358 may lead to a rise toward 1.1433 and 1.1505.
Selling on a breakout of 1.1267 may lead to a decline toward 1.1206 and 1.1147.
Buying on a breakout of 1.3293 may lead to a rise toward 1.3350 and 1.3416.
Selling on a breakout of 1.3236 may lead to a decline toward 1.3205 and 1.3165.
Buying on a breakout of 142.85 may lead to a rise toward 143.29 and 143.77.
Selling on a breakout of 142.32 may lead to a decline toward 141.82 and 141.34.
Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1370 and a return below this level.
Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1316 and a return above this level.
Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3293 and a return below this level.
Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3254 and a return above this level.
Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6378 and a return below this level.
Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6353 and a return above this level.
Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3888 and a return below this level.
Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3858 and a return above this level.
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