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In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.1346 level and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. The rise and formation of a false breakout around 1.1346 led to an entry point for selling the euro, resulting in a drop of the pair to the level of 1.1306. The technical picture was not revised for the second half of the day.
The revised upward PMI services data from eurozone countries led to a slight strengthening of the euro against the dollar in the first half of the day. During the U.S. session, figures on the U.S. trade balance and the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index are expected. If the data is weak, which is more likely, pressure on the dollar will return. In the case of strong data, I would prefer to act on a decline in the 1.1306 support area. A false breakout there, similar to what occurred earlier, will be a reason to buy EUR/USD in anticipation of a market rebound with a return to the 1.1346 level. A breakout and retest of this range will confirm a valid entry point, with the next target at 1.1379. The furthest target will be 1.1416, where I plan to take profit. If EUR/USD declines and shows no activity around 1.1306, pressure on the pair will increase significantly, potentially leading to a stronger downward move. In that case, the bears may push the pair down to 1.1269. I plan to act on long positions only after a false breakout forms there. Immediate long entries will be considered only from 1.1219, targeting an intraday upward correction of 30–35 points.
If the euro rises following U.S. data, bears will again need to prove their presence around 1.1346. Only a false breakout there will serve as a signal to enter short positions with a target at the 1.1306 support area, where the moving averages—currently favoring bulls—are located. A breakout and consolidation below this range will be an appropriate setup for selling, targeting 1.1269. The furthest goal will be 1.1219, where I plan to take profit. Testing this level will break the bullish market structure. If EUR/USD rises again during the second half of the day and bears do not act around 1.1346 (already tested once today), buyers may push for a retest of 1.1379. I will only sell there after a failed consolidation. Short positions on a rebound will be considered from 1.1416, targeting a 30–35 point downward correction.
The COT report from April 29 showed a rise in long positions and a decrease in shorts. Considering that the European Central Bank plans to continue lowering interest rates, this fact remains a limiting factor, preventing the euro from returning to a bullish market. Meanwhile, an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged, which supports the U.S. dollar. According to the COT report, long non-commercial positions increased by 183 to 196,388, while short positions decreased by 10,586 to 120,591. As a result, the gap between long and short positions widened by 9,285.
Moving Averages: Trading is taking place around the 30- and 50-period moving averages, indicating market uncertainty.
Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the H1 hourly chart, which differs from the standard definition on the D1 daily chart.
Bollinger Bands: In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.1290 will act as support.
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