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Trade Review and Guidance for Trading the Japanese Yen
The price test at 143.06 occurred just as the MACD indicator began to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined by 20 points.
In the second half of the day, the key event will be the publication of the Federal Open Market Committee's decision on the key interest rate, followed by a statement and press conference by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The expectation is that interest rates will remain unchanged. However, even in the absence of a rate change, investor attention will be focused on the tone and comments from the Fed Chair. Market participants will analyze signals regarding the future direction of monetary policy, especially in light of persistent inflation and risks of renewed price growth due to tariffs. It is important to note that the FOMC decision is being made amid ongoing global economic instability. Geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and inflationary pressure continue to significantly affect economic activity. Therefore, the Fed's forecasts and assessment of the current situation will play a decisive role in setting the market's near-term direction.
As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point near 143.55 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 144.24 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 144.24, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point retracement). A bullish move today is only likely after a dovish Fed stance. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price at 143.18 is tested twice in a row while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the downward potential and lead to a bullish reversal. A move toward the opposite levels of 143.55 and 144.24 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break below 143.18 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 142.50, where I'll exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point retracement). Pressure on the pair can occur at any time today. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price at 143.55 is tested twice in a row while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a bearish reversal. A move toward the opposite levels of 143.18 and 142.50 can be expected.
What's on the chart:
Important: Beginner Forex traders must make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news events, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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