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At today's meeting, the Bank of England is expected to lower the key interest rate from 4.50% to 4.25%. Business media claim the market has already priced in this event and calmed down. However, we are skeptical of this narrative: since the April 7 local low, the euro has risen by 3.96%, while the pound has gained significantly more—4.72%. Therefore, if the pound continues to rise, it will be for a different reason, which in itself introduces risk.
Technically, on the daily chart, the price attempts to hold above the 1.3311 level but has been unsuccessful so far, so a decline into the target range of 1.3184–1.3208 remains likely. A further drop toward 1.3101, where the MACD line is approaching, is also possible. This strengthened level may serve as a base for a mid-term bullish reversal.
From a purely technical perspective, the upward scenario remains favorable. If the price breaks above the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.3465, it may continue to rise in a calmer market environment, following the broader risk-on sentiment. The next target lies at 1.3635, the resistance zone from January to February 2022.
There is no confirmed price growth yet, but early signs are emerging. These include a break above 1.3311, a move above the balance line (red moving average), and the Marlin oscillator entering positive territory. A break above the MACD line around 1.3383 would unlock the pound's upside potential.
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