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The current technical and fundamental setup for the AUD/JPY pair points to short-term pressure from the Japanese yen. However, fundamental factors favoring the Australian dollar help maintain the pair's upside potential.
The AUD/JPY pair has paused a two-day rally, retreating slightly from a new monthly high. This pullback is attributed to yen strength following comments from Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, who emphasized the need for further monetary policy normalization through interest rate hikes, provided economic conditions and price levels improve. These remarks have put pressure on the Australian dollar, contributing to the pair's correction.
On the other hand, support for the Aussie comes from strong domestic data—namely, a higher-than-expected wage price index—as well as easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. These developments reduce the likelihood of a sharp rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), thereby supporting the Australian dollar against both the U.S. dollar and the yen.
This underlying fundamental backdrop favors the emergence of buying on dips, although some caution is warranted.
Traders are advised to closely monitor the release of Australia's key monthly employment report on Thursday. The results could serve as a major driver of the pair's next move: strong figures may propel the Australian dollar higher, while weak numbers could fuel further correction or decline.
In summary, despite the short-term pullback due to yen strength, fundamentals remain supportive of the Australian dollar.
Technical Outlook:
The pair is retreating from yesterday's upward impulse, attempting to hold above the key psychological level of 95.00. Oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the pair is upward.
The nearest resistance lies at yesterday's high around 95.65. A break above this level would pave the way for a return to the 96.00 round number.
Any pullback toward the 100-day SMA near 94.55 can be seen as a buying opportunity.
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