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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair climbed to the resistance zone of 1.3344–1.3357 on Wednesday, rebounded from it, and began a downward move toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3205. As of Thursday morning, the pair is trading between 1.3205 and 1.3344, making it unlikely that trading signals will form in the coming hours. Economic data from the UK has not significantly impacted the market.
The wave pattern has become more complicated after the latest bullish assault. The last completed upward wave broke the previous wave's peak, but the last downward wave also broke the previous low. This suggests that the "bearish" trend may be transforming into a "bullish" one. Bulls will find it difficult to rise above the 1.3425 level without new comments from Donald Trump regarding increases or imposition of import tariffs, but bears are also struggling, as recent days have shown. In my view, the last upward wave may have been a fluke.
There was no major informational backdrop on Wednesday, but Thursday morning brought a new batch of UK statistics. However, this did not provide support for either bulls or bears. UK Q1 GDP rose more than traders had expected—up 0.7% q/q and 1.3% y/y—yet industrial production in March fell by 0.7% m/m, worse than forecasts. As a result, one report offset the other, and no new bullish momentum is likely from this data. The British economy continues to deliver mixed results, and the pound's growth is driven more by the decline in the U.S. dollar than by domestic factors. Today's U.S. reports are more likely to support the pound than UK ones. Based on the market's reaction to the U.S. inflation report, I believe that any weak U.S. data could prompt a new dollar decline.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and continued to decline toward the 76.4% corrective level at 1.3118. No impending divergences are observed on any indicator. The upward trend channel still suggests a bullish trend. Only a firm break below the channel would support a prolonged bearish trend.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bullish last week. The number of long positions among speculators increased by 3,320 contracts, while short positions decreased by 1,956. Bears have lost their market advantage. The gap between long and short positions now stands at 29,000 in favor of the bulls: 94,000 vs. 65,000.
In my opinion, the pound still faces downward potential, but recent developments could lead to a long-term market shift. Over the past three months, long positions have grown from 65,000 to 94,000, while short positions have fallen from 76,000 to 65,000. Under Donald Trump, confidence in the dollar has wavered, and the COT reports indicate that traders lack strong enthusiasm for buying the dollar.
Economic Calendar for the UK and US:
Thursday's economic calendar contains several key releases, two of which have already been published. The impact of the news background on market sentiment for the rest of the day is likely to be moderate.
Forecast for GBP/USD and Trading Recommendations:
Sales were possible on Wednesday after closing below the 1.3344–1.3357 zone on the hourly chart and also after two rejections from this area, with targets at 1.3265 and 1.3205—all of which have been reached with room to spare. Yesterday, sales were again possible from the 1.3344–1.3357 zone with targets at 1.3205 and 1.3139. Today, those short positions can still be held. Buying is possible on rebounds from 1.3205 and 1.3139 levels on the hourly chart.
Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3205–1.2695 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
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