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There won't be many important news events in the United States in the coming week—unless one attempts to uncover what's happening in the Oval Office. It's been this way for many years: the second half of every month is typically much quieter than the first. In the U.S., there will be no reports for the first three days of the week; on Thursday, some business activity indices and a couple of less significant indicators will be released; and on Friday, nothing at all. Therefore, we can assume that the economic backdrop will play virtually no role in influencing the market.
The real focus will be on Donald Trump and Washington's trade negotiations with other countries. As I mentioned earlier, the likelihood of deals being signed with most countries is high. However, the market is primarily interested in deals with the EU and China, where things are far from simple or optimistic. Simply put, deals with Hungary or the UK don't interest anyone. The market hardly reacted to the deal with the UK at all.
So yes, demand for the U.S. dollar could rise slightly on the back of a new trade agreement—not with the EU or China—but there has already been plenty of positive news for the dollar recently.
Still, if demand for the dollar increases, the market is doing so very cautiously. Meanwhile, the wave structure suggests a transition to forming a new bullish wave. The dollar urgently needs support from Trump, who is uniquely positioned to instigate a sell-off, which is precisely what is necessary at this moment.
The negotiations with China and the EU—those deals, which could restore the market's faith in the dollar—may take many more months, or even years, to finalize.
Based on the conducted analysis, EUR/USD continues to build an upward trend segment. In the near term, the wave structure will depend entirely on the stance and actions of the U.S. president—this must be constantly kept in mind. Wave 3 of the upward segment has begun forming, and its targets may stretch up to the 1.25 level. Achieving these targets will depend solely on Trump's policies. At present, wave 2 within wave 3 may be considered complete. Therefore, I continue to consider buying opportunities with targets above 1.1572, which corresponds to the 423.6% Fibonacci level. It's important to remember that a de-escalation in the trade war could reverse the upward trend, but there are no wave-based signs of a reversal at the moment.
The wave pattern for GBP/USD has shifted. We are now dealing with an impulsive upward segment. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, the markets may still face many shocks and reversals that defy wave logic and most forms of technical analysis. The upward wave 3 continues to form, with nearby targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. Therefore, I continue to consider buying opportunities, as the market does not yet desire to reverse the trend again.
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