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Today, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is holding modest intraday losses.
Uncertainty surrounding the ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks, along with rising tensions between Estonia and Russia following Sunday's detention of a Greek oil tanker, have emerged as key factors supporting oil prices. According to US Special Representative Steve Witkoff, any agreement with Iran must include a commitment to cease uranium enrichment.
Additionally, some selling pressure on the US dollar is providing further support to oil prices, helping to limit the downside. The market is increasingly recognizing the possibility that the Federal Reserve may further cut interest rates this year, and the recent unexpected downgrade of the US government's credit rating has triggered fresh dollar selling today.
However, the upward potential for oil remains limited due to mixed macroeconomic data from China, which dampens the optimism sparked by the recently announced 90-day trade truce between the US and China. As such, it would be prudent for traders to wait for stronger buying signals before preparing for a continuation of the recent recovery from the monthly low.
Technical Outlook:On the 4-hour chart, a sustained move above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), coupled with a breakout above the key psychological level of $62.00, would serve as the first confirmation of a bullish bias.
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