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The pair is under pressure, trading within the familiar range established earlier. At the moment, the fundamental background is mixed.
Crude oil prices are struggling to attract significant buyers, especially after Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating, which worsens the economic outlook for the world's largest energy consumer. Additionally, mixed macroeconomic data from China released on Monday is putting pressure on the oil market, which in turn negatively affects the Canadian dollar.
Potential breakdowns in nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran also dampen prospects for increased Iranian oil supply, thereby supporting crude prices.
On the other hand, subdued demand for the U.S. dollar—driven by expectations of further Fed rate cuts in 2025—limits upward movement in the USD/CAD pair. Recent U.S. CPI and PPI data came in weaker than expected, pointing to slowing inflation. This, combined with disappointing retail sales figures, increases the likelihood of sluggish growth in the coming quarters, potentially prompting the Fed to continue its easing policy, preventing the U.S. dollar from gaining upward momentum.
At the same time, Canada's headline CPI data was positive, which supports the Canadian dollar. However, the market reaction to stronger data is likely to be limited due to lingering uncertainty around potential retaliatory tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump.
From a technical perspective, as long as oscillators on the daily chart remain in negative territory, the path of least resistance for the pair will be downward. The nearest support level is 1.3900, while resistance lies at 1.3970, just below the key psychological level of 1.4000.
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