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Gold is trading around $4,028, near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the low of $3,965 to the high of $4,165. We could expect gold to consolidate above the solid support level of $4,020 in the coming hours. This support level has already acted as a solid support zone on July 8, 14, and 19, so we believe it could halt gold's decline, allowing it to rebound or resume its uptrend.
Gold has recorded a series of consecutive declines since reaching a high around $4,165; this level acts as strong resistance. At the same time, gold managed to close the gap from July 9, when it surpassed $4,121.
If the downward pressure persists, gold is likely to reach $4,010 in the coming hours, which represents the first daily support level (S_1). If XAU breaks below this zone, it could be expected to reach $3,985 near the second daily support level. This zone could also be considered a solid support level for gold; hence, a technical bounce around this zone is realistic.
Although there is still no clear signal to open long positions, we should wait for gold to consolidate above the 61.8% retracement level, around $4,035. Above this zone, a buying opportunity could be considered, with targets at the 38.2% level, which also coincides with the 21-day simple moving average (SMA), around $4,082.
If gold breaks above $4,080 and consolidates above this zone, the outlook could be positive, and we could expect it to return to the 200 EMA around $4,148 in the coming days.
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