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The test of the 1.3567 level in the first half of the day coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning its move down from the zero line, which confirmed the correctness of the entry point for a short position. As a result, the pound dropped by only 10 points, after which the pressure on the pair subsided.
Today's lack of important U.S. statistics could become a key factor helping the pound regain some of the ground lost in the first half of the day against the dollar. While investors will be watching closely for any hints of a shift in the Federal Reserve's rhetoric, the internal economic situation in the UK will also play an important role. Slowing growth continues to weigh on the Bank of England, and it's clear that interest rate decisions will be made with a focus on stimulating the economy. In the absence of major data, technical analysis will play a more crucial role in today's trading. A breakout above key resistance levels could confirm the pound's upward trend.
For today's intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on Scenario 1 and Scenario 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario 1: I plan to buy the pound at 1.3568 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.3601 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3601, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal). Pound strength today could extend the bullish trend. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD is above the zero line and just starting to rise.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3553, with MACD in the oversold zone. This should limit the downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. The likely targets are 1.3568 and 1.3601.
Sell Signal
Scenario 1: I plan to sell the pound once the price breaks below 1.3553 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 1.3522, where I will exit shorts and open long positions (expecting a 20–25 point bounce). However, sellers are unlikely to show strong momentum today. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD is below the zero line and just starting to fall.
Scenario 2: I will also consider selling the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3568, with MACD in the overbought zone. This should limit the pair's upward potential and prompt a reversal downward. The likely targets are 1.3553 and 1.3522.
Chart Legend:
Important Notes for Beginners:
New Forex traders must be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market during major news releases to avoid sudden price spikes. If you do choose to trade during news events, always set stop-loss orders to minimize risk. Without stop-losses, you could quickly lose your entire account—especially if you don't practice proper money management and trade with large lot sizes.
Remember: Successful trading requires a clear, structured trading plan, like the one presented above. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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