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Buyers of the euro and the pound have taken a wait-and-see approach, as Trump's statements alone are no longer enough to justify ongoing purchases of risk assets. However, today's economic data may provide a new reason to take action.
Today is expected to be eventful for the financial markets, with developments that could shift the balance of power. The focus will be on data from Germany and France, as well as a speech by a representative of the German central bank.
The day begins with the GfK German Consumer Climate Index, based on a survey of around 2,000 consumers. This indicator offers valuable insights into consumer sentiment and expectations regarding the future economic situation. Economists watch it closely, as it can signal changes in consumer spending — a major driver of economic growth. The release will help assess how resilient consumer demand is in the face of current inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.
Next, we'll see the French Consumer Price Index (CPI). This key inflation indicator reflects changes in prices for goods and services purchased by households. Analysts will evaluate how effectively the French government manages inflationary pressures and what future measures may be necessary to stabilize prices. A slowdown in French inflation is expected.
Rounding out the first half of the day is a speech by Bundesbank board member Joachim Nagel. He is expected to comment on the current economic situation in Germany and the eurozone and to present the Bundesbank's outlook on monetary policy.
If the data aligns with economists' expectations, using a Mean Reversion strategy is the best approach. A Momentum strategy is more appropriate if the data significantly exceeds or misses forecasts.
Buying a breakout above 1.1393 could lead to a rise toward 1.1425 and 1.1455.
Selling a breakout below 1.1370 could lead to a fall toward 1.1334 and 1.1300.
Buying a breakout above 1.3570 could lead to a rise toward 1.3612 and 1.3635.
Selling a breakout below 1.3545 could lead to a fall toward 1.3510 and 1.3475.
Buying a breakout above 143.25 could lead to a rise toward 143.70 and 144.10.
Selling a breakout below 143.00 could lead to a drop toward 142.55 and 142.00.
Looking for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.1412 followed by a return below that level
Looking for longs after a failed breakout below 1.1358 followed by a return above that level
Looking for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3573 followed by a return below that level
Looking for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3528 followed by a return above that level
Looking for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.6501 followed by a return below that level
Looking for longs after a failed breakout below 0.6458 followed by a return above that level
Looking for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3758 followed by a return below that level
Looking for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3716 followed by a return above that level
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