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The euro, the pound, and other risk assets, including the Japanese yen, continued to decline sharply against the U.S. dollar.
Strong May data on U.S. consumer confidence were the main driver behind these developments. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index significantly exceeded economists' expectations. This triggered a wave of reassessment regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook, strengthening the stance of those supporting a more aggressive approach to curbing inflation.
The dollar's appreciation exerted direct pressure on the euro, the pound, and other risk assets, which traditionally have an inverse correlation with the U.S. currency. Traders, encouraged by the prospect of higher interest rates in the U.S., began actively buying dollars, which in turn triggered a sell-off in the overbought euro.
Today, pressure on the pair may persist, and even weak data from the eurozone may suffice. Upcoming data includes changes in French consumer spending, GDP growth, unemployment change, and the unemployment rate. Negative surprises in these reports could reinforce expectations that the European Central Bank will continue to aggressively cut interest rates, fearing further damage to the fragile economic recovery. This, in turn, would widen the policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB, making the U.S. dollar more attractive to traders.
However, it's worth noting that the market's reaction may be complex and nonlinear. For instance, even weak data might be interpreted as temporary and not requiring immediate ECB intervention, thereby softening the pressure on the euro. Additionally, global market sentiment and geopolitical developments may influence the currency pair's dynamics.
If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is advisable to follow a Mean Reversion strategy. The Momentum strategy is more appropriate if the data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations.
Buying on a breakout above 1.1325 may lead to growth toward 1.1350 and 1.1375.
Selling on a breakout below 1.1300 may trigger a decline toward 1.1265 and 1.1235.
Buying on a breakout above 1.3485 may lead to growth toward 1.3530 and 1.3570.
Selling on a breakout below 1.3460 may trigger a decline toward 1.3430 and 1.3400.
Buying on a breakout above 144.85 may lead to growth toward 145.16 and 145.46.
Selling on a breakout below 144.30 may lead to a drop toward 143.90 and 143.40.
Look to sell after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1333 followed by a return below that level.
Look to buy after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.1277 followed by a return to that level.
Look to sell after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3507 followed by a return below that level.
Look to buy after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3442 followed by a return to that level.
Look to sell after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.6464 followed by a return below that level.
Look to buy after an unsuccessful breakout below 0.6418 followed by a return to that level.
Look to sell after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3849 followed by a return below that level.
Look to buy after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3802 followed by a return to that level.
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