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The economic news background in the U.S. will be very strong. It's the beginning of a new month, so reports on business activity, the labor market, job openings, and unemployment will be released. If we exclude the inflation report, the above indicators are the most important for market participants. However, in recent months, monetary policy from the Federal Reserve or the unemployment rate has not been the market's primary focus. Instead, the market has been dominated by the new trade architecture that Donald Trump is trying to implement in the global economy. Therefore, there is every reason to believe that trade war news will continue to dominate next week.
Everyone should be waiting for the upcoming news, but why wait when it's already here? Over the weekend, Donald Trump announced increased tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to protect American factories and manufacturers. This news alone could sharply reduce demand for the U.S. dollar on Monday.
In addition, the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released on Monday, followed by the JOLTS job openings report on Tuesday, the ISM Services PMI and ADP employment report on Wednesday, and the Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate on Friday.
Furthermore, I am confident we will receive new updates on the global trade war. Trump may announce signing initial trade agreements, which would slightly ease market tensions. Alternatively, it could be new tariffs. By the way, I wouldn't exclude the European Union and China from the list of countries against which tariffs could be raised. Trump's mood changes very often. Today, he might agree to Ursula von der Leyen's request to postpone tariff hikes, and tomorrow, he could change his mind and raise them. Therefore, it's too early to relax — this story is far from over.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair continues to build a bullish segment of the trend. In the near term, the wave structure will depend entirely on news flow related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. Wave 3 of the bullish segment has begun, and its targets could extend up to the 1.25 area. Thus, I consider buying opportunities with targets above 1.1572, corresponding to 423.6% of the Fibonacci extension. It should be remembered that a de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the bullish trend, but for now, there are no signs of reversal or de-escalation.
The wave structure of GBP/USD has transformed. We are now dealing with a bullish impulse wave. Unfortunately, with Donald Trump in office, markets may experience many shocks and reversals that don't fit neatly into any wave pattern or technical analysis. However, the current working scenario and wave structure remain intact. Wave 3 of the bullish segment is ongoing, with immediate targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. Therefore, I continue to consider buying, as the market shows no desire to reverse the trend at this point.
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