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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1454, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and began a downward move. Today, the pair consolidated below the 1.1374–1.1380 zone, which allows us to expect a continuation of the euro's decline toward the next retracement level at 50.0% — 1.1320. A consolidation above the 1.1374–1.1380 zone would favor the euro and signal a resumption of growth toward 1.1454. The "bullish" trend remains intact.
The wave structure on the hourly chart has changed. The last completed downward wave broke below the previous wave's low, but the last completed upward wave also broke above the previous high. Thus, the trend remains "bullish" for now, despite some signs of a potential reversal. Recent news about a possible increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum caused the bears to retreat once again.
The news background on Tuesday was fairly interesting and is significant for traders. I wouldn't say that the inflation report from the Eurozone will drastically impact the ECB's decision on Thursday. Most likely, the decision has already been made. Since the last ECB meeting, we have heard from almost all ECB policymakers, and the general consensus is that further monetary policy easing is warranted, with future actions depending on circumstances. Yesterday's inflation report merely confirmed the validity of this view: the Consumer Price Index slowed again and came in below market expectations. Thus, we are likely to see an ECB rate cut tomorrow. In recent months, ECB monetary policy easing has not exerted strong pressure on the euro. Therefore, I do not expect significant euro declines today or tomorrow. Chart analysis suggests bears may push the pair down to 1.1320, but further downside seems doubtful. Thus, within the "bullish" trend, I continue to look for buy signals rather than sell opportunities.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 100.0% retracement level at 1.1213. This rebound allowed a reversal in favor of the euro and initiated a move toward the 127.2% retracement level at 1.1495. A rebound from 1.1495 would favor the U.S. dollar and some decline, while a consolidation above this level would increase the likelihood of further growth toward the 161.8% retracement level at 1.1851. No impending divergences are observed on any indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the last reporting week, professional players closed 1,716 long positions and 6,737 short positions. The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group remains "bullish," thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 204,000, while short positions number 124,000, and the gap (with few exceptions) has been consistently widening. Thus, demand for the euro remains high, while demand for the dollar does not. The situation remains unchanged.
For seventeen consecutive weeks, major players have been reducing short positions and increasing long ones. The divergence in monetary policy approaches between the ECB and the Fed continues to favor the U.S. dollar due to the widening interest rate differential. However, Donald Trump's policies remain a more significant factor for traders, as they could trigger a recession in the U.S. economy and numerous long-term structural issues.
News Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone:
The economic calendar for June 4 contains five entries. The news impact on market sentiment on Wednesday may be moderate, as only the ISM index can be considered important.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:
Selling the pair was possible yesterday after the rebound from 1.1454, targeting 1.1374–1.1380 and 1.1320. The first target has been reached, and trades can be held open for the second target. Today, I recommend buying on a rebound from 1.1320 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1374–1.1380. Or buy after a close above the 1.1374–1.1380 zone with a target of 1.1454.
The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1574–1.1066 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.
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