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The USD/JPY pair is showing moderate weakness on Monday, dropping toward the psychological level of 144.00.
The decline is driven by a combination of factors, including the strengthening of the Japanese yen and the weakening of the U.S. dollar.
The yen is supported by the upward revision of Japan's first-quarter GDP, which bolsters expectations for further monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Japan. An additional factor is the rise in inflation expectations in the country, reinforcing market expectations for possible interest rate hikes in the coming months.
Furthermore, ongoing geopolitical risks and a general decline in risk appetite in global markets are boosting demand for the yen as a traditional safe-haven asset. This adds pressure on the USD/JPY pair, especially as investors remain cautious ahead of the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks in London.
On the other hand, the U.S. dollar received support after Friday's stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data, which reduced the likelihood of a near-term Fed rate cut. This limits the downward potential of USD/JPY and restrains bears from more aggressive selling.
Overall, the short-term dynamics of the USD/JPY pair will depend on further signals from the Federal Reserve's and the Bank of Japan's monetary policies, as well as the outcome of the U.S.-China trade negotiations. Amid continued uncertainty, the yen may continue to attract demand as a safe-haven asset, especially if geopolitical tensions escalate.
From a technical standpoint, Friday's breakout from a multi-day trading range could be seen as a trigger for USD/JPY bulls. However, mixed oscillators on the daily chart suggest waiting for follow-through buying above the psychological level of 145.00. After that, spot prices may attempt to climb toward the round level of 146.00.
On the other hand, the round level of 144.00 is protecting against immediate declines. A convincing break below this level could trigger technical selling, dragging the USD/JPY pair back to the 143.50 level, on the way to the 143.00 round level and the next significant support in the 142.70–142.65 zone. This level is critical; a decisive break below it would revive the recent decline from the May high.
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