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For the GBP/USD pair, the wave pattern continues to indicate the formation of an upward impulse wave structure. The wave pattern closely resembles that of the EUR/USD pair. Until February 28, we observed a convincing corrective structure that raised no doubts. However, demand for the U.S. dollar began to fall sharply, resulting in a trend reversal to the upside. Wave 2 of this trend took on a single-wave form. Inside the presumed wave 3, waves 1 and 2 have been formed. Consequently, we can now expect a new increase in the British pound within wave 3 of 3, which is what we are currently observing.
It's important to remember that much of what is happening in the currency market right now depends on Donald Trump's policies. Even good news from America may not help because the market is constantly aware of the complete uncertainty in the economy, Trump's contradictory decisions, and the White House's hostile and protectionist foreign stance. Therefore, the dollar needs to work very hard to convert even positive news into increased market demand.
The GBP/USD exchange rate remained unchanged throughout Monday. There was no news background on the first day of the week, but this didn't matter much for either the dollar or the euro. The price first rose, then fell — movements that were unrelated to any news or reports. In the previous review, I noted that Donald Trump's campaign promises are not being fulfilled. However, I only listed part of the promises he made. For example, he pledged to resolve the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which has been ongoing for four years, within 24 hours. That didn't happen. He also promised tax cuts for American citizens. It later turned out that tax cuts could indeed happen — if the "One Beautiful Law" passes through the U.S. Congress. It likely will pass (since Republicans hold a majority in both chambers), but the law contains many clauses that go beyond tax reductions.
Trump plans to significantly cut various social programs to save the budget and increase defense spending. So, while taxes may be reduced in one part of the bill, expenditures will rise in another. Who will pay for this feast? American consumers, who will see the prices of foreign goods increase due to tariffs — not the EU or China. Thus, Trump plans to give with one hand and take with the other. Moreover, economists have calculated that tax cuts will mainly benefit the wealthiest Americans, while the taxes for the poor will remain virtually unchanged — though social programs will be cut.
The wave pattern for the GBP/USD pair has transformed. Now we are dealing with an upward, impulsive trend segment. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, the markets can expect many more shocks and reversals that defy wave analysis and any kind of technical analysis. However, at the moment, the working scenario and structure remain intact. The construction of the upward wave 3 continues with the nearest target at 1.3708, which corresponds to 200.0% Fibonacci extension from the presumed global wave 2. Therefore, I continue to consider buying, as the market has not shown any desire to reverse the trend again.
On a higher wave scale, the wave structure has transformed as well. We can now assume the construction of an upward trend segment, which for now does not appear complete. Thus, further increases can be expected.
Main Principles of My Analysis:
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