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The test of the 144.88 level in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential.
Comments from Ueda and the decision to leave rates unchanged had no impact on the yen, which continued to trade in the narrow range formed during the Asian session. Traders are awaiting news on the Iran-Israel military conflict, thus refraining from active moves. Financial markets have adopted a wait-and-see approach driven by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. An escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict could destabilize the region and have serious implications for global markets.
Attention is also focused on U.S. data, particularly retail sales and industrial production. Other figures like manufacturing output and capacity utilization are likely to be ignored unless they significantly exceed forecasts, which could then support the U.S. dollar and lead to a rise in USD/JPY.
Today's strategy is based on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 144.97 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 145.97 (thicker green line). At 145.97, I'll exit long positions and open shorts, expecting a 30–35 point pullback. A strong rally today depends on robust U.S. data. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 144.49 level while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will cap the pair's downside and trigger an upward reversal. A rise to 144.97 and 145.97 may be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a move below 144.49 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a sharp decline. The main target for sellers will be 143.50, where I'll exit short trades and open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure will return if U.S. data disappoints. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and just starting to fall.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 144.97 level while MACD is in the overbought zone. This will restrict further upward momentum and trigger a reversal to the downside. A drop to 144.49 and 143.50 may follow.
Chart Key:
Important Note for Beginner Forex Traders:
Exercise extreme caution when entering the market, especially before the release of key economic reports. It is often safer to stay out of the market during such times to avoid volatility spikes. If you do trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Trading without them can quickly wipe out your deposit—especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan—like the one above—is essential for success. Spontaneous decisions based on short-term market noise are a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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