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The wave pattern for GBP/USD continues to indicate the development of a bullish impulse wave structure. The pattern is almost identical to that of EUR/USD, as the driving factor is the U.S. dollar. Demand for the dollar is weakening across the board, causing many instruments to show similar dynamics. Wave 2 of the upward trend segment has formed as a single wave. Within the presumed wave 3, sub-waves 1 and 2 have already formed. Therefore, we can expect the British pound to continue rising as part of wave 3 of 3, which is what we are currently observing.
It's important to note that the current state of the currency market heavily depends on Donald Trump's policies—beyond just trade. Even if positive news comes from the U.S., the market remains preoccupied with economic uncertainty, contradictory decisions from Trump, and a hostile, protectionist stance from the White House. As a result, the dollar is struggling to convert even good news into rising demand. So far, it hasn't succeeded.
The GBP/USD rate remained mostly flat on Wednesday, following a 100-point decline the day before. As previously mentioned, Trump resumed his threats—but this time not toward trade partners from whom he demands favorable deals. This time, it's Iran, from which he demands a full halt to all nuclear weapons and development programs. Trump called on all civilians to evacuate major Iranian cities, suggesting that missile strikes could occur within the next 48 hours—not from Israeli forces, but directly from the United States.
Recall that Iran considers Israeli military action synonymous with U.S. involvement. Many around the world understand who backs Israel. Therefore, any Israeli strike is already viewed as an indirect U.S. attack. Trump said it's not too late to sign a deal (which includes abandoning nuclear programs), but Tehran rejected the offer. Iranian leader Ali Khamenei warned on Wednesday that any U.S. strikes on Iranian targets would be considered a declaration of war and would be met with a harsh response. He likely implies retaliatory strikes against American military bases.
All of this suggests that the world stands on the brink of yet another full-scale military conflict, which could significantly impact the global economy through oil prices. Since early May, oil prices have surged by approximately 20% due to market fears over a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz and reduced oil output in the Middle East. Rising oil prices could fuel higher inflation. Let me also remind you that the Bank of England (BoE) meeting is scheduled for tomorrow.
The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are observing a bullish impulse trend segment. Under Donald Trump's presidency, the markets may experience many more disruptions and reversals that do not align with wave patterns or any form of technical analysis. However, for now, the active scenario remains relevant, and Trump continues to fuel declining demand for the dollar. The targets for the current bullish wave 3 are around the 1.3708 mark, which corresponds to 200.0% on the Fibonacci scale from the presumed global wave 2. Therefore, I continue to favor long positions, as the market currently shows no intention of reversing the trend.
On the higher wave scale, the structure has shifted into a bullish configuration. It suggests the formation of another upward trend segment, which at this point appears incomplete. Further upward movement remains the most likely scenario for now.
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