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Six months into Donald Trump's presidency, it seems he has already thoroughly exhausted the world with his "brilliant" initiatives, groundbreaking actions aimed at making America great again, and his vivid embodiment of geopolitical uncertainty.
Trump's constant maneuvering—both domestically and internationally, in economic and geopolitical arenas—creates a persistent state of unpredictability regarding the outcomes of his actions. His recent admission that he makes final decisions on important matters just before their implementation makes it nearly impossible to forecast potential developments. From an investment perspective, this is a highly negative factor. In times of strategic uncertainty, it's difficult to calculate likely scenarios. For instance, not long ago, Trump claimed to favor a peaceful resolution to the Middle East conflict, but he later openly supported Tel Aviv in its war with Iran, calling for Iran's surrender.
The same applies to his actions in domestic and geo-economic policy. The trade wars he initiated only partially resolved American issues. The main trading "partner" and economic adversary, China, has not capitulated and continues to resist, inflicting significant economic damage on the U.S.
Naturally, financial markets cannot remain unaffected. The war in the Middle East has driven up crude oil prices, and Trump's promises of direct U.S. strikes on key Iranian military and economic sites have further pushed prices higher. Although prices are undergoing a noticeable correction due to the lack of actual follow-through on Trump's threats, the risk of crisis escalation remains.
Investors have learned to discount the 45th president's promises by at least half; however, any moment those promises could materialize, potentially leading to serious consequences and even an expanded conflict in the Middle East.
Right now, we are seeing a corrective pullback in gold prices—a traditional barometer of market tension. Prices are falling due to the current lack of action on Trump's threats to strike Iran. Trump keeps the situation in suspense, making his opponents nervous. While this may work in the world of business that he's familiar with, it doesn't translate well into politics when facing strong adversaries.
Over the past six months, market participants have come to understand Trump's playbook and have started using it to their advantage. They react to his loud proclamations, and then, when those actions either don't materialize or prove limited in scope, they reverse their positions. A recent example: bold promises of missile and bomb attacks on Iran drove oil demand higher, but once the strikes failed to materialize and Trump began dodging with vague statements about timing, oil prices started to correct downward. Along with gold's retreat, this now serves as a clear indicator of what markets truly expect from Trump.
Oil and gold prices are likely to continue correcting downward until Trump sends a new signal. If no such signal comes, both may continue falling into Monday—unless, of course, something new occurs in the Middle East or Trump makes another absurd announcement. The cryptocurrency market, like the dollar, will remain under pressure. Overall, the previous market trends are expected to persist.
The U.S. benchmark WTI is consolidating above the support level of 74.65. A drop below this could lead to a corrective decline toward the 23% Fibonacci level at 73.45 or even further to the target of 72.85. A divergence between price and oscillators is visible on the chart, signaling a potential downward price move. The 74.40 level could serve as a sell trigger.
Gold prices are under pressure due to Trump's unfulfilled threats regarding Iran. After breaching the 3341.50 level, this could lead to a downward correction toward 3295.00. The 3335.35 mark may serve as a trigger point for short positions.
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