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Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro
The test of the 1.1713 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.
French data had little impact on the EUR/USD pair's direction, highlighting the dominant influence of U.S. macroeconomic statistics on this currency pair in the current market environment. Investors appear to be more focused on signals from the Federal Reserve and the general state of the U.S. economy rather than on European indicators.
Today, the most important factor will be the U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index for May. If the index shows an increase, it could renew pressure on the euro, while the U.S. dollar may strengthen toward the end of the week. Additionally, data on changes in U.S. household income and spending, as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, will be released. These reports will provide key insights into the current state of the U.S. economy and may influence the Fed's future monetary policy decisions. The University of Michigan Sentiment Index is especially important, as it reflects consumer confidence in the economy. A rise in this index signals optimistic consumer sentiment and willingness to increase spending, which can support economic growth. Conversely, a decline may suggest concerns about a potential slowdown.
As for intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Buy the euro today when the price reaches the area around 1.1732 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.1772. I plan to exit the market at 1.1772 and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback from the entry point. A strong rally in the euro is more likely if the U.S. statistics disappoint. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1700 level, with the MACD in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the resistance levels of 1.1732 and 1.1772 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1700 level (red line on the chart), targeting a decline to 1.1650. I will exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction, anticipating a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure on the pair could resume today if the data is strong.Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1732 level, with the MACD in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A drop toward the 1.1700 and 1.1650 levels can be expected.
Chart Legend:
Important Notice for Beginner Traders:
Forex market beginners should make market entry decisions with caution. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Trading without stop-losses can quickly lead to a complete loss of your deposit, especially if you disregard money management and trade large volumes.
And remember: successful trading requires a clear plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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