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On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement. The 127.2% retracement level at 1.1712 proved relatively weak; however, a close above it still allows for the expectation of further growth toward the next level at 1.1802. A move back below 1.1712 will not be considered a strong sell signal. Bears continue to retreat from the market, while bulls maintain their offensive.
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave, while the new upward wave surpassed the previous peak. Thus, the trend has once again turned bullish. The lack of progress in U.S.–China and U.S.–EU negotiations keeps bears hesitant, the FOMC meeting did not help the U.S. dollar, and the Middle East conflict brought no benefit either. As expected, the bearish trend did not prove strong or lasting.
The news background on Friday was weak, offering no meaningful support to either bulls or bears. Currently, bears have very little to rely on in terms of news support. Almost all U.S. data is negative—at least for the dollar. As a result, everything comes down to whether bullish traders will receive new support on any given day. If they do, the upward move continues; if not, bulls simply wait.
Today, the most important event is a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde. She may once again hint at the end of monetary policy easing, as inflation has stabilized around 2%. Despite the fact that rate cuts have persisted for over a year, this is no longer an issue for bulls in 2025. They continue to buy the euro even amid ECB rate cuts. Although investment conditions in Europe are becoming less attractive, the overall situation and political climate in the U.S. are even worse. Therefore, whatever Lagarde says today is unlikely to affect bullish sentiment.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has risen to the 1.1680 level and consolidated above it, which allows for the expectation of further growth toward the next Fibonacci retracement level of 161.8% at 1.1851. A move back below 1.1680 would support the U.S. currency and indicate a decline toward the lower boundary of the ascending trend channel. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 2,980 long positions and closed 6,602 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish—thanks to Donald Trump—and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 224,000, while short positions amount to 112,000. The gap (with few exceptions) continues to widen. Thus, demand for the euro remains strong, while the dollar is being ignored. The situation remains unchanged.
For twenty-one consecutive weeks, large market players have been reducing short positions and increasing longs. The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed is significant, but Donald Trump's policies have become a more critical factor for traders, as they risk causing a recession in the U.S. economy along with a host of other long-term, structural problems for the country.
News Calendar for the U.S. and EU:
On June 30, the economic calendar includes three relatively minor events. Therefore, while news may influence market sentiment slightly, the impact is expected to be limited on Monday.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Selling the pair today should only be considered in the event of a bounce down from the 1.1802 level on the hourly chart or a close below 1.1680 on the 4-hour chart. I previously recommended buying on a bounce from the 1.1454 level, targeting 1.1574, 1.1645, and 1.1712. Additional buying opportunities became available after a close above 1.1712, with a target at 1.1802.
The Fibonacci level grids are drawn from 1.1574–1.1066 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.
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