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Trade Review and Trading Tips for the Euro
Due to low volatility, none of the levels I identified were tested during the first half of the day, so I ended up with no trades.
Despite weak retail sales figures from Germany, which limited the euro's upside, EUR/USD did not experience a significant downward move. The published data raised investor concerns, signaling a potential slowdown in the eurozone's leading economy. This, in turn, heightened fears about the broader outlook for the European economy. The data triggered a sell-off in the euro as market participants reassessed their expectations for the European Central Bank's (ECB) future monetary policy. In the current environment of economic uncertainty caused by trade tariffs, the probability of ECB monetary easing remains, which is limiting the pair's bullish potential.
No major drivers are expected during the U.S. session that could significantly impact current market conditions. Attention will focus on the release of the Chicago PMI and speeches by FOMC members Raphael Bostic and Austan D. Goolsbee. However, even minor economic reports or remarks from Federal Reserve officials could cause a spike in market volatility, especially amid light trading volumes. The Chicago PMI, which reflects regional manufacturing activity, will be closely watched for signs of either economic acceleration or slowdown. The speeches from Bostic and Goolsbee, both members of the Federal Open Market Committee, will also draw attention, as investors look for clues about any shift in the FOMC's interest rate outlook.
As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1:Today, I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches the level around 1.1746 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1795. At 1.1795, I will exit the market and consider selling the euro in the opposite direction for a 30–35 point correction from the entry point. A move higher could occur following weak economic data.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise from that level.
Scenario #2:I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1712 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, the price could rise back to 1.1746 and 1.1795.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1:I plan to sell the euro after a move to the 1.1712 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1650, where I will exit the market and consider reversing for a 20–25 point correction in the opposite direction. Downward pressure on the pair may return if strong data is released.Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below zero and just beginning to decline.
Scenario #2:I also plan to sell the euro if the 1.1746 level is tested twice in a row, and the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's bullish potential and lead to a downward reversal. In this case, I expect a decline toward 1.1712 and 1.1650.
Chart Notes:
Important:Beginner traders on the Forex market should exercise extreme caution when deciding to enter trades. It's best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental releases to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Without stop-losses, you risk quickly depleting your entire account—especially if you ignore money management principles and trade with large volumes.
And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.
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