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XAU/USD is trading around $4,149, below the 21 SMA, and pulling back slightly after encountering strong resistance around this moving average.
Lately, gold has consolidated around $4,150 on the H4 chart. Technically, we could expect it to find strong support around $4,140; or, if it reaches a low of $4,125, this could be seen as an opportunity to open long positions in case of a technical rebound at this level, where the daily S_2 is located.
Given that gold is oversold and has been rebounding above the 1/8 Murray line since last week, this suggests that if the price consolidates above $4,162 in the coming hours, the outlook could be positive, and gold could reach $4,175. This would signify a decisive breakout from the downtrend channel; in turn, we could expect resistance around the $4,218 level, where the instrument has encountered strong resistance on two previous occasions.
A consolidation above $4,218 could lead to a recovery in gold prices, potentially closing the gap left on September 23 around $4,278; ultimately, we could expect it to reach the 200-day moving average around $4,292 and, in turn, the 5/8 Murray level around $4,296.
As long as the metal trades above 1/8 Murray, the outlook could be positive and will be seen as a signal to continue buying in the coming days.
The strong support level of $4,125 could be a key area to watch; if gold reaches this level again in the coming hours, it could form a triple bottom pattern, which in turn could be seen as a positive signal to buy in the coming days.
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