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The USD/JPY pair remains under pressure despite the U.S. dollar posting moderate gains for a second consecutive day, approaching the 144.00 level.
Improved global risk sentiment following the trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam is dampening demand for the Japanese yen as a safe-haven asset. Additional pressure on the yen stems from President Donald Trump's threat to impose new tariffs on Japan over its allegedly insufficient support for U.S. goods.
Nevertheless, expectations of another interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, amid rising inflation, create favorable conditions for yen appreciation. At the same time, the U.S. dollar is struggling to attract substantial buyers and remains near multi-year lows reached earlier this week, due to the Federal Reserve's dovish monetary policy stance.
This limits the yen's downward potential and restrains the upward movement of the USD/JPY pair. For better trading opportunities today, attention should be given to the release of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
From a technical perspective, the pullback to the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, combined with negative oscillator readings, points to a bearish bias. A break below the 143.40–143.35 support zone would confirm the bearish sentiment and could lead to a decline toward the psychological level of 143.00, followed by the monthly low in the 142.70–142.65 level. A break below this region would pave the way for further downside.
On the other hand, a sustained recovery above the psychological level of 144.00 would encounter resistance near the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour timeframe, currently around 144.30. A breakout above this barrier could trigger short-covering, pushing the pair toward the 144.50 level and then the 145.00 psychological level. Continued momentum beyond these levels would open the way toward resistance in the 145.40–145.50 range, with a breakout potentially shifting the short-term trend in favor of the bulls.
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