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Today, the USD/CHF pair retraced part of its decline from a new weekly low recorded during the Asian session and has temporarily paused its downward movement, stopping short of the psychological level at 0.8000. Nevertheless, spot prices remain around 0.7940, reflecting a lack of strong upward momentum amid mixed signals.
Support for the U.S. dollar persists due to the reduced likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, which helps the USD/CHF pair hold its ground. At the same time, demand for the Swiss franc has weakened due to the rise in U.S. stock markets, reducing the franc's appeal as a safe-haven currency.
However, the FOMC meeting minutes from June 17–18, released yesterday, left the door open for further interest rate cuts before the end of the year, which discourages traders from aggressively buying the dollar. Additional pressure on the pair comes from trade-related uncertainty: recent statements by U.S. President Donald Trump about imposing new tariffs and refusing extensions for several countries pose risks to global trade and may restrain USD/CHF growth.
On Wednesday, President Trump issued tariff notifications to eight key trade partners, stating that no extensions would be granted. He also emphasized that any retaliatory tariffs imposed by these countries would be added on top of existing U.S. tariffs. In addition, Trump announced the implementation of a 50% tariff on copper imports effective August 1. These developments increase market caution.
Therefore, traders are advised to wait for stronger buying momentum before opening new positions, in order to confirm a continuation of the recent rebound in USD/CHF from last week's lowest level since September 2011.
For better trading opportunities, attention should be paid to the upcoming release of U.S. weekly jobless claims data and speeches by key FOMC members.
From a technical perspective, daily chart oscillators remain in negative territory, suggesting that a broad-based rally is currently unlikely.
Moreover, on the hourly chart, yesterday's drop below the 100-hour SMA and today's weakness below the 200-hour SMA confirm a bearish outlook.
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