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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rebounded from the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3633 and resumed its decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3527. A rebound from this level would favor the pound and a potential rise toward the 1.3611–1.3633 level. A firm close below 1.3527 would increase the likelihood of a further decline toward the next corrective level at 100.0% – 1.3444.
The wave structure continues to suggest a bullish trend. The last completed upward wave broke above the previous high, and the two following downward waves have not breached its low. Therefore, what we are seeing is not a trend reversal but a series of waves within a correction. Sellers still lack the grounds to establish a sustainable bearish trend, while the dollar has limited support factors. Trump's trade war continues to have a damaging effect on the U.S. currency.
Throughout this week, the news cycle has been dominated by Trump's new tariff threats. Interestingly, the bears have not been particularly discouraged, despite previously retreating at the first sign of trouble. However, the situation has shifted somewhat. The bears continue to apply pressure, but it's evident that they are running out of momentum. Meanwhile, the bulls appear to be waiting for a favorable moment to regain control.
Today's GDP and industrial production reports from the UK came in rather weak, so a new upward movement in the pound will likely be delayed. GDP for May declined by 0.1% month-over-month, compared to market expectations of a 0.1% increase. However, the three-month GDP rose by 0.5%, beating the 0.4% forecast. Industrial production disappointed the most, falling by 0.9%, which is far below expectations. Nevertheless, I still believe the bullish trend will resume soon. The bears' efforts remain unconvincing.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar just a few pips short of the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3795. Since the decline was sudden and could be short-lived, I believe the hourly chart is more useful for analysis at the moment. No emerging divergences are currently visible on any indicators. The bullish trend remains intact.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment among Non-commercial traders became slightly less bullish last week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 7,302, while short positions rose by 10,298. However, bears have long since lost their market advantage and currently stand little chance of success. The gap between long and short positions remains wide—107,000 versus 75,000 in favor of the bulls.
In my view, while the pound still faces short-term downside risks, developments in 2025 have fundamentally changed the market's long-term outlook. Over the past four months, long positions have grown from 65,000 to 107,000, while short positions have dropped from 76,000 to 75,000. Under Donald Trump, confidence in the dollar has weakened, and the COT reports confirm that traders are reluctant to buy the U.S. currency. So regardless of the broader news context, the dollar continues to decline amid political developments involving Trump.
Economic Calendar for the UK and U.S.:
Friday's economic calendar includes two noteworthy events, both of which have already been released. The news background is unlikely to affect market sentiment for the rest of the day.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:
Selling the pair was possible after a rebound from the 1.3611–1.3633 level with a target of 1.3527. This target has been nearly achieved. New sell positions may be considered after a firm close below 1.3527 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3444. Buying opportunities may arise from a rebound at 1.3527, targeting the resistance zone at 1.3611–1.3633.
Fibonacci levels are based on 1.3446–1.3139 on the hourly chart and 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
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