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Trade Review and Tips for Trading the British Pound
The price test at 1.3547 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair dropped by 17 points.
The pound declined following the news that the UK's GDP contracted by 0.1% in May. This unexpected development raised investor concerns about the resilience of the British economy amid global uncertainty. Growth prospects remain unclear, especially considering ongoing inflationary challenges. Many analysts believe the Bank of England is likely to continue easing monetary policy, which would further weaken the pound.
Today, without any major U.S. data or new statements from Trump regarding trade tariffs, it may be difficult for the pound to break lower. An increase in the U.S. budget deficit could signal higher government borrowing, potentially pressuring the dollar. On the other hand, a declining deficit may be seen as a positive sign of improving financial stability—something Trump has recently been emphasizing. Nevertheless, even with positive figures, market reaction may remain muted if they are not supported by stronger fundamental factors.
As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today after the price reaches the 1.3559 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3596 (thicker green line). Around 1.3596, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions, expecting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction. A significant rally in the pound is unlikely today. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3532 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. The expected targets are 1.3559 and 1.3596.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the price breaks below 1.3532 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a quick decline. The primary target for sellers is 1.3493, where I plan to exit short positions and open long ones, expecting a 20–25 point bounce. Sellers are likely to remain active if strong data supports further downside.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3559 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. The expected targets would be 1.3532 and 1.3493.
Chart Notes:
Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is generally best to stay out of the market before key economic reports to avoid sudden price movements. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without them, you risk quickly losing your entire deposit—especially if you neglect money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear plan like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous decisions based on current market movements is typically an unprofitable strategy for intraday trading.
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