15.07.202512:30 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair is gaining positive momentum, recovering from more than two weeks of declines triggered by Trump's threat to impose new tariffs. On Saturday, Trump announced plans to raise tariffs to 30% on goods imported from the European Union starting August 1, sparking fears of an escalation in the trade conflict. In response, European leaders confirmed their intention to continue negotiations with the U.S. in an attempt to reach an agreement before the deadline, and they also postponed the implementation of retaliatory measures while warning of potential future actions.

However, on Monday, Trump softened his rhetoric and expressed willingness to engage in dialogue. During a speech at the White House, he noted Europe's interest in pursuing an alternative agreement, which raised hopes for avoiding a global trade war. This more conciliatory tone has supported the euro and improved risk sentiment in global markets. Additionally, the weakening of the U.S. dollar—traditionally viewed as a safe-haven currency—is also contributing to the strengthening of the EUR/USD pair. The dollar's decline may be linked to anticipation of U.S. consumer inflation data, set to be released during the North American session. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will influence forecasts regarding a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which in turn could boost demand for the dollar and affect EUR/USD price dynamics. Currently, markets estimate a roughly 60% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, and expect a total of at least 50 basis points of monetary easing by year-end.

Thus, weaker U.S. CPI data could heighten expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut, putting additional pressure on the dollar. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank intends to maintain its current stance and pause rate cuts at the upcoming meeting, despite concerns over the negative impact of U.S. tariffs on the eurozone economy. This suggests that any market reaction to strong U.S. inflation figures may be short-lived and reinforces the potential for a significant EUR/USD recovery.

From a technical perspective, the recent break and close below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart is a key signal for a bearish trend. Oscillators on this timeframe are showing negative momentum.

At the same time, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14) remains above the 50 level, and the MACD histogram and signal line are still in bullish territory, indicating the possibility of a move above the 1.1700 psychological level toward the next key resistance around 1.1750. A continued recovery could extend toward 1.1800 and then to the 1.1830 level—the high reached earlier this month and the strongest since September 2021.

On the other hand, the 1.1650–1.1655 level, which marks the multi-week low, currently serves as support, limiting immediate declines. If the pair falls further, additional support may be found near the psychological level of 1.1600. A break below this level could trigger intensified bearish pressure. In that case, the EUR/USD pair could continue its decline toward the 1.1535–1.1530 level, followed by the 1.1500 psychological level and support in the 1.1455–1.1450 level.