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Today, the EUR/JPY pair is regaining positive momentum after yesterday's pullback from the 173.25 level, which now marks the yearly high, and is maintaining intraday growth. Spot prices are currently fluctuating just above the round level of 172.00, having risen by about 0.20% on the day, driven by persistent selling pressure on the Japanese yen.
Data published today shows that Japan posted a smaller-than-expected trade surplus in June. For the second consecutive month, exports declined due to ongoing negative effects from U.S. trade tariffs. This is occurring against the backdrop of slowing economic growth, declining real household incomes (i.e., falling wages), and signs of easing inflation in the country—all of which may complicate the Bank of Japan's policy normalization efforts. Domestic political uncertainty has also become a key factor behind yen weakness and support for the EUR/JPY pair.
In addition, according to recent public opinion polls, Japan's ruling coalition—the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Komeito party—may lose its majority in the Upper House elections scheduled for July 20. Such a scenario would increase the country's fiscal and political risks and complicate trade negotiations amid the looming U.S. tariff hike. Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump notified key trade partners, including Japan, of a planned 25% tariff on exports to the U.S.
Another contributing factor is the decline in demand for safe-haven assets, which is undermining the Japanese yen's status as a stabilizing currency, thereby supporting further growth in the EUR/JPY pair.
The fundamental backdrop suggests that the global path of least resistance for the pair remains upward. For a new impulse in the pair, attention should be paid to Friday's release of Japan's monthly Consumer Price Index report.
From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index on the daily chart is in overbought territory, indicating a potential period of consolidation in the near term.
The pair faces strong resistance at the 173.25 level. Support is currently located at the 100-hour SMA in the 172.35–172.40 level. If the price drops below this zone, it may find support at the round level of 172.00, beneath which lies the 50-hour SMA. If this level fails to hold, the balance may shift in favor of the bears for the rest of the day—especially since the hourly chart oscillators have moved into negative territory.
However, it's worth noting that on the daily chart, the oscillators remain in positive territory.
Below is a table showing percentage changes in the Japanese yen's exchange rate against major currencies today. The most notable movement has been seen against the Australian dollar.
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