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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its decline on Monday and, by early Tuesday, had firmly broken below the support zone of 1.3357–1.3371. As a result, the British pound may continue to fall today toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3259. A consolidation above the 1.3357–1.3371 zone would work in favor of the pound and a potential rebound toward 1.3425 and 1.3470.
The wave situation shifted in favor of the bulls but quickly reversed again. At the moment, the most recent upward wave broke above the peaks of the two previous waves, while the most recent downward wave broke through all previous lows. Thus, the trend can once again be considered bearish. However, the news background played a major role in supporting the bears. If the news background turns against them in the near term, we could see an equally strong upward wave, and the trend could shift back to bullish. The situation is uncertain and heavily dependent on this week's news.
The news background on Monday significantly influenced the pound's exchange rate, even though no economic reports were released from the UK. The trade agreement between the EU and the U.S., which many European politicians have already described as "unequal," "unbalanced," and "oppressive," triggered a market-wide reaction. On one hand, the U.S. dollar strengthened, as the deal is clearly advantageous for the United States. On the other hand, the euro declined sharply, dragging down other European currencies, as the Eurozone's economic outlook deteriorated noticeably on Monday.
It is also worth noting that the agreement has not yet been signed; only certain understandings have been reached. I have doubts that it will ultimately be signed, as it would require approval from most EU member states. It is already clear that this agreement offers no real benefit to the EU, making it entirely possible that the European Parliament may reject its ratification.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair generally continues its downward movement and has completed a new reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar. A firm break below the 1.3378–1.3435 support zone allows traders to expect a continued decline toward the next 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3118. Currently, no divergence signals are forming on any indicators. A consolidation above the 1.3378–1.3435 zone would reverse the momentum back in favor of the bulls.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
Trader sentiment in the "Non-commercial" category has become significantly less bullish over the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 7,220, while short positions increased by 21,401. Bears have begun retreating sharply, possibly due to the growing appeal of the U.S. dollar following the conclusion of major trade deals by Washington. At the moment, the gap between the number of long and short positions is essentially zero: 93,000 vs. 93,000.
In my view, the British pound still faces downward pressure. While the news background in the first six months of the year was extremely negative for the U.S. dollar, it is slowly beginning to improve. Trade tensions are easing, major deals are being signed, and the U.S. economy is set to recover in the second quarter due to tariffs and various domestic investments.
Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the UK
United States – JOLTS Job Openings (14:00 UTC)
Tuesday's economic calendar contains only one notable release. The impact of the news background on trader sentiment for the rest of the day is expected to be minimal.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips
Selling opportunities were present after the hourly chart closed below 1.3425, and later after the 4-hour chart closed below the 1.3378–1.3435 zone. Therefore, short positions can currently be held with nearby targets. Buy positions may be considered if the hourly chart closes above the 1.3357–1.3371 zone, with targets at 1.3425 and 1.3470.
Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3371–1.3787 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
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