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Today, USD/CAD extended its gains for the fourth consecutive day, supported by steady buying interest in the U.S. dollar. Additionally, a slight decline in crude oil prices is weighing on the Canadian dollar, which is closely tied to commodity markets.
Positive macroeconomic data released last week from the United States point to continued strength in the labor market. Moreover, concerns that higher U.S. tariffs may intensify inflationary pressures in the second half of the year suggest that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged following its two-day meeting ending Wednesday. This supports the U.S. dollar index, which has reached its highest level in over a month, and remains a key factor underpinning the USD/CAD pair.
Overall, the dollar's appreciation is putting pressure on commodity prices denominated in U.S. dollars, including oil.
The 35% tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on imports from Canada are also exerting downward pressure on the Canadian dollar and contributing to the upward movement of USD/CAD. These factors increase the likelihood of further gains in spot prices in the short term, although bulls may choose to wait for additional signals regarding a potential Fed rate cut before opening new positions.
For better trading opportunities, attention should be focused on the outcome of the key FOMC meeting, which begins Tuesday. The accompanying policy statement and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell after the meeting could significantly impact the dollar's exchange rate and provide fresh momentum for USD/CAD. The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged. In addition, today's U.S. macroeconomic data releases may create short-term opportunities for traders during the North American session.
Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, oscillators currently show mixed signals, suggesting traders may want to wait for the release of key economic data before entering new positions. The nearest resistance for the pair is at 1.3772, followed by the psychological level of 1.3800. On the other hand, support is provided by the 50-day EMA, followed by the round number 1.3700, where the 50-day SMA is currently located.
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