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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair moved sideways above the 127.2% retracement level – 1.3258 – on Monday. As a result, the upward movement may continue on Tuesday toward the resistance zone of 1.3357–1.3371. A consolidation below 1.3258 would work in favor of the U.S. dollar and a possible decline toward the support zone of 1.3114–1.3139.
The wave pattern remains "bearish." The last upward wave broke the highs of the previous two waves, but the last downward wave also broke all prior lows. Thus, the trend can still be considered bearish. However, the news background has played a major role in shaping it. If the news flow soon turns against the bears (and it already began to shift on Friday), we may see an equally strong upward wave, and the trend could shift back to bullish. The situation is uncertain and largely dependent on incoming news.
There was no significant news on Monday, but traders are already preparing for the most important event of the week – the Bank of England meeting. The Bank of England has been following a pattern of cutting interest rates at every second meeting in 2025 and has so far stuck to this schedule. However, in my view, the MPC will carefully review the latest data on Thursday, as it casts doubt on the need for further monetary easing in August. Unemployment has risen to 4.7%, inflation has climbed to 3.6%, and GDP growth in Q1 accelerated to 0.7%. All this suggests that tackling inflation should take priority, while the economy can afford to wait. If the MPC decides to cut rates, bears may receive fresh support. However, in my view, there has been significantly more negative news from the U.S. lately than from the UK.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the pound after a bullish divergence appeared on the CCI indicator and a series of weak U.S. data releases. As a result, the price may continue rising toward the resistance zone of 1.3378–1.3435. No new divergences are currently forming on any indicators. A rebound from the 1.3378–1.3435 zone would favor the U.S. dollar and a renewed decline toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level – 1.3118.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" trader category turned bearish in the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 5,961, while the number of short positions increased by 6,637. However, this sharp drop in interest in the pound does not fully reflect what's happening in the market, as interest in the dollar also fell significantly on Friday. The gap between long and short positions is now approximately 87,000 vs. 100,000.
In my view, the pound still has downward potential. The U.S. news background during the first half of the year was overwhelmingly negative, but it's slowly beginning to shift in a more positive direction. Trade tensions are easing, key deals are being signed, and the U.S. economy is expected to recover in Q2 thanks to tariffs and various investment initiatives. At the same time, prospects for Fed policy easing in the second half of the year may put pressure on the dollar.
News Calendar for the U.S. and UK:
Tuesday's economic calendar includes two entries, but only one is of high importance. The news background will influence trader sentiment, particularly in the second half of the day.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:
Selling the pair is possible today if it closes below 1.3258 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3114–1.3139. A buying opportunity emerged on Friday after a rebound from the 1.3114–1.3139 zone. These long positions can remain open, targeting 1.3357–1.3371, until the pair closes below 1.3258.
Fibonacci grids were drawn from 1.3371 to 1.3787 on the hourly chart, and from 1.3431 to 1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
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