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To build something new, you first have to tear everything down. This is the principle Donald Trump is following in restructuring the international trade system. As a result, principles that have been tested for decades are suffering. For example: strong economy – strong currency. The White House wants to see a strong America but a weak dollar. To achieve this, the Federal Reserve must be pushed to cut interest rates even while the U.S. economy remains on solid footing. If that works, EUR/USD will resume its upward trend.
Derivatives markets are confident in a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to 4.25% in September and expect to see three acts of monetary easing by the end of 2025. The main obstacle for the Fed is inflation. The acceleration of the core indicator from 2.9% to 3.1% and consumer prices anchored at 2.7% are strong arguments in favor of maintaining a pause in the Fed's monetary easing cycle.
For the White House, inflation levels are irrelevant. What matters is that the Fed eases monetary policy. At the same time, Trump has stopped attacking Jerome Powell. The U.S. president understands that Powell does not make decisions alone. Verdicts are issued collectively. The Republican already has three people on the FOMC — Michelle Bowman, Christopher Waller, and newcomer Stephen Miran.
To win the support of the others, the head of state has chosen an unconventional approach. He has expanded the list of candidates for Fed chair after Jerome Powell's departure. It now includes Jefferson, Logan, and other FOMC members. Not only can the promise of the chairmanship be used to encourage rate cuts, but the U.S. administration will also hold talks with each candidate. They will almost certainly be subjected to pressure.
Will America return to a golden age if the Fed becomes a puppet of the White House and the Bureau of Labor Statistics feeds investors the data the U.S. president wants them to see? Falsified figures and a central bank stripped of its independence drive money out of the U.S. securities market and support the rise of EUR/USD.
Only a significant slowdown in the global economy could halt the rally of the main currency pair. And the first signs are beginning to appear. Following the conclusion of a U.S.-EU trade deal that is unfavorable for Europe, investor confidence in Germany's economic outlook has deteriorated.
However, according to Bundesbank head Joachim Nagel, European Central Bank rates are in an ideal place. Against the backdrop of three Fed rate cuts expected over the remainder of the year, this gives the euro a clear advantage over the U.S. dollar.
From a technical perspective, on the daily chart EUR/USD is attempting to return to its fair value of 1.165. A successful breakout above this level would increase the chances of an upward trend recovery and serve as a signal for buying.
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