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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has, as expected, cut the interest rate by 25 basis points, from 3.85% to 3.60%. The market hardly reacted to the move, as the cut had long been priced in. Since inflation, economic growth, and unemployment generally matched the RBA's previous May forecast, there were no surprises following the meeting.
The outlook for further RBA action suggests the rate will be cut at least two more times, reaching 3.1% in the first half of 2026. NAB Bank projects this exact level, and the RBA's own forecasts imply roughly the same endpoint for the rate-cut cycle.
Recent macroeconomic indicators in Australia do not inspire much optimism. Overall consumer spending in July rose by 0.7%, marking a slight slowdown compared to the growth pace of recent months. The growth in total retail sales slowed to 0.2% after a period of strong gains in May and June. Business confidence is rising—the latest NAB survey showed an increase to +7 points, slightly above the long-term average—but current conditions worsened by 2 points. This result reflects the economic environment: businesses expect conditions to improve further, and until that happens, it is too early to speak of a sustainable economic recovery.
The next rate cut is likely to occur only in November, as the RBA will probably wait for the quarterly inflation report (due at the end of October). Moreover, in its economic projections, the RBA confirmed that rates will continue to be lowered. If inflation slows more significantly (it already eased to 2.1% in Q2), the forecast for the terminal rate may be revised downward to an even lower level of 2.85%.
As for GDP forecasts, the outlook for 2025 has been lowered from 2.1% to 1.7%, which does little to boost bullish confidence.
Taking all factors together, it must be acknowledged that risks are shifting toward a lower rate, which is the main long-term factor likely to weigh on the Australian dollar in the coming months. If the U.S. manages to avoid a recession, the chances of AUD/USD resuming its upward trend will diminish even further.
One of the reasons supporting the Australian dollar (as well as its New Zealand counterpart) is the extension of the U.S.–China trade truce for another 90 days, until November 9. This truce provides some confidence that China will be able to maintain its position and that Australian exports to the country will not be affected.
Net short positions on the Australian dollar continue to grow, increasing by 325 million over the reporting week to -5.4 billion. The fair value remains above the long-term average but has turned downward.
AUD/USD is attempting to build short-term momentum, but the chances of it turning into a resumption of the long-term uptrend remain low. We believe that the 0.6580/0.6610 resistance zone will halt the rise, after which the pair will turn south. The main target is to break through the 0.6410/0.6420 support area, after which the move could become more pronounced.
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