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Diverging expectations for Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve policy support the low-yielding yen, while hopes for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine limit the safe-haven yen's advance.
At the end of its July meeting, the Bank of Japan revised its inflation forecast and confirmed its readiness to raise interest rates if growth and inflation continue to meet its projections. Data published last week showed that Japan's economy expanded more than expected in the second quarter despite external headwinds such as U.S. tariffs, reinforcing expectations of a rate hike by year-end. In the United States, traders have scaled back expectations for more aggressive Fed rate cuts amid signs of stronger price pressures. According to the FedWatch tool, there is an 85% probability of a September rate cut. There is also a possibility of two 25-basis-point cuts in 2025, which contrasts with the more hawkish outlook of the Bank of Japan.
Geopolitics is also influencing markets: U.S. President Donald Trump announced preparations for a meeting with the presidents of Russia and Ukraine, fueling hopes for a swift peace agreement and reducing demand for safe-haven assets. Domestic politics in Japan—namely the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's defeat in the elections—adds further uncertainty and raises concerns about the impact of U.S. tariffs on the domestic economy. This could delay the Bank of Japan's rate hike, which has so far kept traders from speculating on the yen and has supported the dollar in the USD/JPY pair.
Today, the key event will be a speech by FOMC member Bowman. Tomorrow, the FOMC meeting minutes and Jerome Powell's remarks will follow. However, the main focus should be on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, which may provide clues about the further pace of rate cuts.
From a technical standpoint, the USD/JPY pair has been trading in a range for the past two weeks, which can be described as a consolidation phase against the backdrop of neutral oscillators on the daily chart. Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for a breakout in either direction before preparing for the next stage of directional movement. At the same time, a sustained breakout and hold above the 148.00 round level will act as a key trigger for bulls, opening the path toward the 149.00 round level, with resistance at 148.50. On the other hand, a corrective decline will find solid support around 147.10–147.00, where the 100-day SMA runs on the daily chart. A decisive break of this level would make USD/JPY vulnerable to a retest of the multi-week low near 146.20, reached last Thursday. A subsequent drop below the 146.00 round level would shift the bias in favor of the bears.
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