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For GBP/USD, the wave structure continues to indicate the formation of an upward impulsive wave pattern. The wave picture is almost identical to EUR/USD since the only "main driver" here remains the dollar. Demand for it is declining across the entire market (in the medium term), which is why many instruments are showing nearly identical dynamics. At the moment, wave 4 is presumably complete. If that is the case, the instrument's growth will continue within impulse wave 5. Wave 4 could still take the shape of a five-wave structure, but this is not the most likely scenario.
It should be remembered that much in the FX market right now depends on Donald Trump's policies—not only trade-related ones. From time to time, fairly good news comes from the U.S., but the market remains focused on the ongoing economic uncertainty, Trump's contradictory decisions and statements, and the hostile, protectionist stance of the White House. Global tensions are rising, and as I already said, the main source of this volatility is the dollar, which is therefore taking all the "hits."
The GBP/USD rate barely moved on Tuesday. Price swings remain very limited amid the complete absence of economic news. For this reason, the market prefers to wait at least until Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. I must disappoint many readers right away: Jerome Powell rarely makes any promises. He has always taken a cautious stance, preferring to promise nothing, so that nobody can hold him accountable later. That is why I personally do not expect any bold statements from the FOMC Chair on Friday.
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is likely to resume easing next month, which means demand for the U.S. currency could once again decline in the coming weeks. In fact, the current wave pattern only lacks a small corrective wave before the continuation of future wave 5. Therefore, in the next few days—or even a week—we may see the development of such a wave.
Since FOMC policy easing is practically predetermined, Powell may only worsen the outlook for the dollar on Friday. At the same time, he is the only one who could offer the U.S. currency some short-term support. If Powell states that the Fed needs to wait for the next inflation and labor market reports before making a final decision, that would amount to maintaining a "hawkish" tone. Only in this case could demand for the dollar increase slightly. I should remind that back in spring this year, Powell mentioned autumn 2025 as the time to start "counting the chickens." In my view, that time will not come even in autumn, since no final tariffs have yet been introduced. Thus, Mr. Powell may delay until the very last moment—and he would be right to do so.
The wave picture for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward impulsive trend segment. Under Donald Trump, markets may still face numerous shocks and reversals that could seriously affect the wave pattern, but for now the working scenario remains intact. The targets for the upward trend segment are now located near 1.4017. At the moment, I assume that the formation of corrective wave 4 is complete. Therefore, I recommend long positions with a target at 1.4017.
Main principles of my analysis:
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