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The British pound will be of interest to the market in much the same way as the euro. Over the next five days, there will be zero reports and zero speeches in the UK. While in the case of the euro, the market can at least, for entertainment's sake, pay attention to German data on unemployment and inflation, with the British pound, there will be nothing to watch at all.
Accordingly, the fate of GBP/USD will depend entirely on the U.S. dollar. The only thing that can reasonably be expected from the market right now is a renewed decline in demand for the dollar. Jerome Powell's speech on Friday was not especially informative and sowed new doubts about the Federal Reserve's readiness to resume the easing cycle. And yet, despite all this, the market continued selling the dollar. In my view, this fact signals the market's readiness to keep selling the U.S. currency, regardless of when the FOMC actually resumes cutting the interest rate. Everyone understands that it will happen—if not now, then later, once Powell steps down. And Powell could still resign voluntarily, as Adriana Kugler did.
The wave pattern remains not only clear-cut but also textbook-like. We've seen another five-wave rise, three-wave decline, and two-wave rise. Therefore, unless the news background suddenly turns the trend downward (which is unlikely), the upward movement should continue. Based on this, I expect further growth in the value of the British pound.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues building a bullish trend segment. The wave structure remains entirely dependent on the news background tied to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. Targets for the trend segment may extend up to the 1.25 area. Accordingly, I continue to consider long positions with targets around 1.1875, which corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci level, and higher. I assume that wave 4 has been completed. Thus, it is still a good time to buy.
The wave structure for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive trend segment. Under Trump, markets may face many more shocks and reversals, which could significantly affect the wave picture, but for now, the working scenario remains intact. Targets for the upward trend segment are now around 1.4017. At this time, I assume that the downward wave 4 has been completed. Wave 2 of 5 may also be near completion. Therefore, I recommend buying with a target of 1.4017.
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