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At the start of the new week, EUR/USD showed a corrective decline, trading near Friday's high slightly above the psychological level of 1.1700. However, a deeper global decline of the pair may be limited, as the U.S. dollar continues to weaken amid rising expectations of a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. These expectations strengthened after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday.
Powell noted that risks to the labor market are increasing, but stressed that inflation remains a serious threat and that no final decision has been made. He added that the Fed still believes monetary tightening is not necessary, even if employment levels exceed maximum sustainable levels.
According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders now price in nearly an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September — up from 75% before Powell's remarks. For a broader picture on rates, attention should be paid to Friday's release of U.S. annual GDP data for Q2 and the July Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), a key inflation gauge tracked by the Fed.
Today, traders should also monitor the release of July new home sales data for better trading opportunities.
On the other side of the pair, important statements came from the European Central Bank: Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said at Jackson Hole that further ECB rate cuts would require significant changes in economic forecasts. Martins Kazaks, also a Governing Council member, noted that the Bank has entered a new phase of monetary policy where the focus shifts to monitoring the economy rather than actively intervening to change its course, Bloomberg reported on Sunday.
From a technical perspective, Friday's breakout above the key 200-SMA on the four-hour chart favors the bulls, especially as oscillators across all timeframes remain positive. Prices may retreat to the 9-EMA, with the next support at the 50-SMA. A drop below this level would open the way to 1.1650, under which lies the 200-SMA. If prices fall below it again, the balance would shift in favor of the bears.
On the other hand, resistance is located at 1.1750, followed by 1.1770 on the way toward the round level of 1.1800. After that, prices may reach the July high near 1.1830.
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