29.08.202514:19 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – August 29th

Only the Canadian dollar could be traded today using the Mean Reversion strategy. For Momentum, I traded the pound and the yen.

In the second half of the day, data will be released on the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, changes in U.S. personal income and spending, and the goods trade balance. These figures will be key indicators of the state of the U.S. economy and consumer sentiment. Traders always study these reports closely to assess inflation trends, the strength of consumer demand, and the contribution of foreign trade to overall economic growth. The PCE index is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, and its dynamics allow assessment of how effectively current monetary policy is curbing price growth. Data on changes in household spending and income provide insight into the financial condition of American households. If spending growth outpaces income growth, it may indicate a declining savings rate and potential consumer vulnerability to economic shocks.

The goods trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports. In light of U.S. tariffs, markets expect a narrowing of the trade deficit, which could positively affect economic growth and the U.S. dollar.

If the statistics are strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market shows little reaction, I will continue to use the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day:

EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout of 1.1680 may lead to growth toward 1.1701 and 1.1740.
• Selling on a breakout of 1.1655 may lead to a decline toward 1.1630 and 1.1600.

GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout of 1.3475 may lead to growth toward 1.3500 and 1.3530.
• Selling on a breakout of 1.3450 may lead to a decline toward 1.3415 and 1.3390.

USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout of 147.35 may lead to growth toward 147.65 and 147.90.
• Selling on a breakout of 147.00 may lead to a decline toward 146.65 and 146.30.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversal) for the Second Half of the Day:

EUR/USD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1690 followed by a return below.
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1654 followed by a return above.

GBP/USD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3485 followed by a return below.
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3440 followed by a return above.

AUD/USD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6546 followed by a return below.
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6524 followed by a return above.

USD/CAD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3765 followed by a return below.
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3733 followed by a return above.