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For GBP/USD, the wave pattern continues to indicate the formation of an upward impulse wave structure. The wave picture is almost identical to EUR/USD, since the only real driver remains the dollar. Demand for it is falling across the market (in the medium term), which is why many instruments show nearly identical dynamics. At this point, wave 4 is presumably complete. If that is indeed the case, the instrument's growth will continue within impulse wave 5. Wave 4 may take the form of a five-wave structure, but this is not the most likely scenario.
It should be remembered that much in the currency market now depends on Donald Trump's policies—not only trade-related. From time to time, positive news comes out of the U.S., but the market constantly factors in full economic uncertainty, contradictory decisions and statements by Trump, and the White House's hostile and protectionist stance. Global tensions are rising, and as I said before, the dollar remains the central factor in the current situation. That is why it takes the full impact.
The GBP/USD rate fell by 180 basis points within a few hours on Tuesday. At the moment, it is not clear what exactly caused market participants to sharply change their attitude toward the U.S. currency. However, there is reason to believe that the pound's collapse is somehow connected to potential budget problems in the UK, triggered by rising government bond yields. I will discuss this issue in more detail later this evening.
For now, I will only note that budget problems are a serious matter. The higher the yield on government bonds, the more expensive they become for the government to service. Budget expenditures will increase, which threatens to create a budget deficit. A budget deficit leads to higher taxes. Higher taxes pave the way for a change of government, since few Britons will welcome this development, especially against the backdrop of declining living standards over the past 10 years since the country officially voted to leave the EU.
Rising bond yields mean that demand for these bonds is falling. Put simply, investors are choosing bonds of other countries or other investment instruments. Since the world has become accustomed to living on debt in recent decades, bond placements are a significant source of financing for nearly every state on the planet. If financing is lacking, it is no surprise that the national currency is also out of demand.
In my view, the pound's decline will be short-lived, but it has nevertheless changed the wave picture. Now wave 2 has taken on a clear three-wave form, and if the decline continues, then the entire wave 4 could develop into a more complex structure, for example, a-b-c-d-e.
The wave picture for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulse segment of the trend. Under Donald Trump, markets may face many more shocks and reversals that could significantly affect the wave picture, but for now, the working scenario remains intact. The targets for the upward trend segment are now near 1.4017. At present, I assume that the formation of corrective wave 4 is complete. Wave 2 within 5 may also be complete or close to completion. Therefore, I recommend buying with a target of 1.4017.
Basic principles of my analysis:
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