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Today, the GBP/JPY pair is attempting to regain positive momentum during the European session after selling off in the Asian session from just above the round level of 199.00. A significant rise in 30-year UK government bond yields to their highest level since May 1998 has intensified concerns about the growing budget deficit, driven by Chancellor Rachel Reeves' decision to increase borrowing in last year's budget. This shifts the focus away from the Bank of England's cautious approach to rate cuts, which is still constrained by persistent inflation risks, and remains a key factor behind the weak performance of the pound. Additionally, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar is weighing on GBP, which may continue to limit the growth of the GBP/JPY pair.
At the same time, there is continued selling of the Japanese yen amid heightened domestic political uncertainty and the absence of hawkish remarks from Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino on Tuesday. While he confirmed the need to continue raising interest rates, he also pointed to the high level of global economic uncertainty. This is encouraging speculators to increase short positions on the yen, which in turn is providing support for GBP/JPY.
Today, attention should be paid to the UK Services PMI data, as well as remarks from Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden, which could influence the pound's trajectory. In addition, yen dynamics may create significant trading opportunities within the GBP/JPY pair.
From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are neutral, and prices are attempting to move above the 9-day EMA. The pair has found support at the 50-day SMA around 198.40. Below this, the round level of 198.00 serves as the key support before a possible drop toward 197.10. On the other hand, resistance lies at the round level of 199.00. Beyond this, the cross will need to overcome resistance in the 199.30–199.40 zone before reclaiming the 200.00 level with the aim of testing the September high near 200.25.
The table below shows the percentage change of the Japanese yen against major currencies for the current week.
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The Japanese yen has shown the greatest resilience against the British pound.
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